Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| O/U 37.5 | 66% |
| O/U 39.5 | 61% |
| Michigan State O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Northwestern O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 53% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State | 52% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| O/U 43.5 | 40% |
| Northwestern O/U 23.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| O/U 57.5 | 28% |
| O/U 61.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| O/U 47.5 | 26% |
| O/U 63.5 | 26% |
| O/U 67.5 | 26% |
| O/U 69.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1H Moneyline | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| O/U 49.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 51.5 | 15% |
| O/U 53.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 59.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| O/U 75.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| O/U 71.5 | 4% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Northwestern vs. Michigan State — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Northwestern and Michigan State, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Northwestern" if Northwestern win the game. This mar…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $333K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Northwestern vs. Michigan State plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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