How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

South Carolina vs. Alabama | Election Predictions 2026

Name: South Carolina vs. Alabama
Start: 2026-09-21T21:00:53.000Z
End: 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1Q Spread -0.5	100%
1Q Spread -1.5	100%
1Q Spread -2.5	100%
1Q Spread -3.5	100%
1Q Spread -5.5	100%
1Q O/U 6.5	100%
1Q O/U 9.5	100%
1Q O/U 12.5	100%
O/U 34.5	96%
Spread -1.5	95%
Spread -5.5	95%
Spread -3.5	94%
Spread -4.5	94%
O/U 40.5	94%
Spread -6.5	93%
1H O/U 21.5	91%
Alabama 1H O/U 17.5	91%
Alabama 1H O/U 19.5	91%
Spread -7.5	90%
Spread -9.5	90%
Spread -10.5	88%
Spread -11.5	85%
O/U 46.5	82%
Spread -13.5	81%
Spread -14.5	78%
O/U 36.5	76%
O/U 38.5	76%
Spread -16.5	75%
O/U 42.5	75%
O/U 44.5	74%
Spread -17.5	73%
Spread -12.5	71%
O/U 50.5	71%
O/U 48.5	70%
Spread -20.5	65%
Spread -15.5	64%
O/U 52.5	64%
O/U 54.5	59%
Spread -18.5	53%
O/U 56.5	52%
Spread -19.5	51%
1H Spread -2.5	51%
1H Spread -4.5	51%
1H Spread -6.5	51%
1H Spread -7.5	51%
1H O/U 30.5	51%
2H O/U 27.5	51%
3Q Spread -7.5	51%
4Q Spread -3.5	51%
4Q O/U 7.5	51%
4Q O/U 19.5	51%
South Carolina O/U 20.5	51%
Spread -8.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
1H Spread -9.5	50%
1H O/U 24.5	50%
1H O/U 33.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -6.5	50%
2H Spread -7.5	50%
2H Spread -9.5	50%
2H O/U 21.5	50%
2H O/U 24.5	50%
2H O/U 30.5	50%
2H O/U 33.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
2Q Spread -4.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
2Q Spread -7.5	50%
2Q O/U 10.5	50%
2Q O/U 13.5	50%
2Q O/U 16.5	50%
2Q O/U 19.5	50%
2Q O/U 22.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -4.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q O/U 9.5	50%
3Q O/U 12.5	50%
3Q O/U 15.5	50%
3Q O/U 18.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q O/U 10.5	50%
4Q O/U 13.5	50%
4Q O/U 16.5	50%
South Carolina O/U 14.5	50%
South Carolina O/U 17.5	50%
South Carolina O/U 23.5	50%
South Carolina O/U 26.5	50%
Alabama O/U 28.5	50%
Alabama O/U 31.5	50%
Alabama O/U 34.5	50%
Alabama O/U 37.5	50%
Alabama O/U 40.5	50%
South Carolina 1H O/U 8.5	50%
South Carolina 1H O/U 10.5	50%
South Carolina 1H O/U 12.5	50%
Alabama 1H O/U 21.5	50%
South Carolina 2H O/U 8.5	50%
South Carolina 2H O/U 10.5	50%
South Carolina 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Alabama 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Alabama 2H O/U 16.5	50%
Alabama 2H O/U 18.5	50%
3Q O/U 6.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Alabama O/U 4.5	50%
South Carolina O/U 2.5	50%
1H Moneyline	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Game Goes to Overtime	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5	50%
Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5	50%
South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
South Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
South Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	50%
Spread -8.5	49%
Spread -22.5	49%
Spread -25.5	49%
1H O/U 27.5	49%
Spread -26.5	46%
O/U 58.5	46%
O/U 60.5	46%
Spread -28.5	41%
Spread -29.5	41%
O/U 62.5	40%
O/U 66.5	36%
O/U 68.5	34%
Spread -4.5	33%
O/U 72.5	32%
Spread -5.5	31%
O/U 74.5	31%
Spread -32.5	30%
O/U 64.5	30%
O/U 70.5	16%
Spread -2.5	15%
2Q Moneyline	11%
South Carolina vs. Alabama	2%
Spread -1.5	2%
1Q Spread -1.5	0%
1Q O/U 15.5	0%
1Q O/U 18.5	0%
1Q Moneyline	0%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, south carolina vs. alabama stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between South Carolina and Alabama, scheduled for September 26 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if South Carolina wi…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1Q Spread -0.5 at 100% for "South Carolina vs. Alabama".

1Q Spread -0.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $347K.

Methodology

This page tracks South Carolina vs. Alabama across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?: Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?: Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade South Carolina vs. Alabama on Election Predictions UK

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Open live market →

South Carolina vs. Alabama

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade South Carolina vs. Alabama on Election Predictions UK

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