Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 95% |
| O/U 37.5 | 93% |
| Texas Tech O/U 20.5 | 89% |
| O/U 39.5 | 87% |
| O/U 41.5 | 84% |
| O/U 43.5 | 84% |
| Texas Tech O/U 23.5 | 84% |
| Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati | 80% |
| Spread -0.5 | 80% |
| Spread -1.5 | 78% |
| O/U 45.5 | 77% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| 1H Moneyline | 75% |
| O/U 47.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Spread -3.5 | 71% |
| Spread -4.5 | 69% |
| O/U 49.5 | 69% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 11.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 67% |
| Spread -5.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| O/U 51.5 | 65% |
| Spread -7.5 | 60% |
| O/U 53.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| Spread -8.5 | 58% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| O/U 55.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| Spread -10.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| O/U 57.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| Cincinnati O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 59.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -14.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Texas Tech O/U 26.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| Spread -16.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Cincinnati O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| Texas Tech O/U 29.5 | 39% |
| Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| O/U 63.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Texas Tech O/U 32.5 | 32% |
| Cincinnati 1H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -20.5 | 31% |
| Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| O/U 65.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Texas Tech O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 26% |
| O/U 67.5 | 25% |
| O/U 69.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Spread -0.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| O/U 71.5 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 15% |
| O/U 73.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| O/U 75.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati. In the upcoming college football game between Texas Tech and Cincinnati, scheduled for October 24 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Tech" if Texas Tech win the game. This market will re…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $83K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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