ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Scotland and Ireland will contest a women's T20 World Cup match on 13 June 2026, with the fixture forming part of the tournament's group stage. The 100% implied probability reflects the near-certainty that this scheduled international match will proceed and produce a decisive result under standard playing conditions. The settlement mechanism treats all on-field outcomes—including Super Over tiebreaks, DLS adjustments, and over-rate penalties—as ordinary wins, meaning the market resolves only if the match is abandoned or formally forfeited without a winner being declared.

Historical precedent suggests women's international T20 fixtures between established ICC nations rarely fail to complete. Both Scotland and Ireland have participated in multiple T20 World Cups since the format's expansion, with cancellations or walkovers virtually absent from their recent head-to-head record. The 2024 T20 World Cup saw no group-stage matches abandoned due to weather or administrative failure across all participating nations, establishing a baseline expectation that June 2026 scheduling in a major tournament will accommodate completion.

Traders should monitor fixture confirmation through the ICC's official tournament schedule and venue announcements as the event approaches. Ground conditions in the scheduled location, weather forecasts within two weeks of 13 June, and any squad availability issues affecting either nation represent the primary variables that could alter completion probability. Recent ICC communications regarding the 2026 tournament structure remain limited, but the governing body's track record of delivering scheduled matches on time suggests the current probability reflects genuine confidence in fixture delivery rather than speculative pricing.

Methodology

This page tracks ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.