How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stak…

Name: Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs
Start: 2026-07-17T13:52:38.039Z
End: 2026-07-17T23:25:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5)	100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-6.5) vs 3DMAX (+6.5)	90%
Map 2 Winner	77%
O/U 2.5 Games	76%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	51%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5)	50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-6.5) vs K27 (+6.5)	50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5	50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-9.5) vs K27 (+9.5)	50%
Match Winner	48%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5)	25%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	10%
Map 1 Winner	0%
Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5)	0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5	0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-12.5) vs 3DMAX (+12.5)	0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5	0%

Market context

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Semifinal match between 3DMAX and K27 in the Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 17 at 1:30PM ET. This market will res…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Which political events have the biggest volume?: US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Ep… on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Ep… on Election Predictions UK

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