How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - 1win E… | Election Predictions 2026

Name: Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
Start: 2026-08-03T18:50:54.000Z
End: 2026-08-04T15:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	72%	28%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	72%	28%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Match Winner	72%
Game 1 Winner	68%
Game 2 Winner	68%
O/U 2.5 Games	50%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
First Blood in Game 1?	50%
First Blood in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?	50%

Market context

Market consensus: 72% chance of dota 2: betboom team vs og (bo3) - 1win essence playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between BetBoom Team and OG in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 4 at 5:00AM ET. This m…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Which political events have the biggest volume?: US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - 1win Essence Play… on Election Predictions UK

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Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - 1win Essence Play… on Election Predictions UK

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