How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3)…

Name: Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
Start: 2026-07-17T16:42:55.948Z
End: 2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	70%	30%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	70%	30%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Match Winner	70%
Game 1 Winner	66%
Game 2 Winner	65%
Any Player Rampage	60%
Any Player Ultra Kill	57%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	55%
First Blood in Game 1?	55%
First Blood in Game 2?	54%
Ends in Daytime	52%
Ends in Daytime	52%
Ends in Daytime	52%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	51%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?	49%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)	45%
O/U 2.5 Games	44%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	31%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	31%
Any Player Ultra Kill	30%
Any Player Ultra Kill	30%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	27%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	27%
Any Player Rampage	8%
Any Player Rampage	8%

Market context

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 70%. This market refers to the Dota 2 Semifinal 1 match between BetBoom Team and Vici Gaming in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 18 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "B…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?: It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Which political events have the biggest volume?: US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports … on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports … on Election Predictions UK

Related live markets

Fed Decision in July?

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Iran leader end of 2026?

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)