Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 56.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 57.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 58.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
Team Falcons and Team Spirit are due to meet in a DreamLeague Group A best-of-three, with the market currently priced as if the game is already effectively certain to be played and produce a winner. That 100% YES reading is much stronger than the historical record of this match-up: the teams have met regularly across recent ESL and PGL events, including DreamLeague and Wallachia, and the head-to-head has been competitive rather than one-sided. EGamersWorld’s record lists 29 meetings, with Falcons winning 15 and Spirit 11, which is a useful reminder that the fixture has often been decided in tight series rather than sweeps.
The main catalyst is the match itself, not a broader schedule change, because Sofascore still lists the fixture for 16 May at 13:30 UTC in the DreamLeague group stage, while ESL’s DreamLeague coverage also includes the pairing on the day. The key trading risk is administrative rather than competitive: whether the series starts on time, is fully completed, or is affected by a schedule shift, server issue, or bracket re-ordering elsewhere in the group. Recent broadcasts and listings from ESL and Sofascore are the most relevant live indicators, since any change to the published match slate would matter more here than the teams’ prior head-to-head.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLea… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on PolyGram →