What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports (…

Name: Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B
Start: 2026-07-23T21:50:54.000Z
End: 2026-07-24T23:50:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Any Player Ultra Kill	100%
Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5)	100%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	91%
Ends in Daytime	91%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	90%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	10%
Game 1 Winner	0%
Game 2 Winner	0%
Match Winner	0%
O/U 2.5 Games	0%
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5)	0%
Any Player Rampage	0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of dota 2: zero tenacity vs ilbirs esports (bo3) - epl masters play-in group b. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Zero Tenacity and Ilbirs eSports in the EPL Masters Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for July 24 at 12:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Which political events have the biggest volume?: US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL … on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL … on Election Predictions UK

Related live markets

Fed Decision in July?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Iran leader end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?