Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
17% | 83% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
17% | 83% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Burnley FC | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| Draw (Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC) | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 11% YES | 90% NO |
Market context
Burnley and Wolverhampton will meet in a Premier League fixture on 24 May 2026, with the market currently pricing a Burnley victory at 25 per cent implied probability. The settlement window closes at 15:00 GMT on match day, allowing traders to adjust positions based on team news and conditions immediately before kick-off.
Historical precedent suggests the current odds reflect Wolves' stronger recent form and home advantage considerations. In the 2024–25 season, Wolverhampton finished above Burnley in the league table, and their head-to-head record over the past three seasons favours the Midlands club. Comparable fixtures between mid-table sides show that away teams typically face a 30–35 per cent win probability, placing Burnley's 25 per cent slightly below baseline expectations. This discount may indicate market participants are factoring in specific squad depth concerns or recent injury reports affecting the Lancashire club's attacking options.
Traders should monitor team news releases in the week preceding the match, particularly regarding key player availability. Burnley's injury list and Wolves' European commitments—should they remain in cup competitions—will influence tactical setup and rotation decisions. Pitch conditions at Molineux and official team sheets released 90 minutes before kick-off represent the final catalysts for position adjustments. Recent fixture congestion across both clubs heading into late May could favour sides with stronger squad rotation depth, a factor worth tracking through official Premier League communications and club announcements.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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