Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 98% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page tracks Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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