Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 40% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 37% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 34% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 24% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 20% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 88% probability to spain vs. argentina - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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