Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 98% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 65% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 61% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 58% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 43% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 39% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 36% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 34% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 30% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 30% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The France vs. Spain - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 98% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page tracks France vs. Spain - Player Props across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade France vs. Spain - Player Props on Election Predictions UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →