Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 73% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 61% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 58% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 1% |
Market context
The France vs. Sweden - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for France vs. Sweden - Player Props plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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