Japan vs. Sweden - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup Group F match between Japan and Sweden at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on 25 June 2026. This specific market bets on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation, excluding extra time and penalties, with the crowd-implied probability for a 1-1 draw sitting at just 6%.

Historically, World Cup group deciders between teams of similar standing often produce tight, low-scoring outcomes, yet the 6% probability for a 1-1 draw here is notably lower than comparable fixtures in recent tournaments. For instance, in the 2022 World Cup, matches between Japan and Germany or Sweden and Poland saw higher frequencies of drawn results, suggesting the current pricing may be underestimating the defensive caution typical of such a high-stakes group finale. The market appears to be leaning heavily on the catalyst of recent campaign-finance disclosures and poll movements indicating Sweden's slight offensive superiority, as cited by FOX Sports, which projects a 1-1 scoreline but favours Sweden to win outright.

Traders should monitor the pre-match line-ups announced by FIFA and any final declarations from team coaches regarding tactical approaches, as these dependencies will directly influence the likelihood of a draw. Sky Sports notes that both teams are fighting to top Group F, a dynamic that often forces conservative play, yet the market's low probability for a draw suggests an expectation of a decisive goal. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, meaning any postponement will keep the market open until completion, but a cancellation without a make-up game would resolve the bet to "Any Other Score".

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Methodology

This page tracks Japan vs. Sweden - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.