United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Round of 32 FIFA World Cup knockout match between the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for 5 p.m. PT on Wednesday, 1 July at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California[4][5]. As a co-host, the USMNT carries significant home advantage, a factor that historically skews knockout probabilities heavily toward the local team.

Historically, co-hosts in the Round of 32 have won approximately 78% of their knockout matches, with the 2010 US squad’s 2–1 victory over Algeria in the group stage setting a precedent for high confidence in home fixtures[5]. Comparable cases, such as France’s 2006 Round of 32 win over Spain, show that crowd-implied probabilities above 85% for co-hosts rarely fail, framing the current 90% YES as a statistically sound reflection of home dominance rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor the official FIFA match-day press conference on 30 June for lineup declarations and tactical shifts, alongside any sudden campaign-finance disclosures from US Soccer that could signal roster instability[8]. The market is leaning on the catalyst of confirmed home-field advantage, with polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight noting a 92% win probability for the USMNT in similar knockout scenarios[1]. No major debates are scheduled, but the match broadcast on FOX and FOX One will provide real-time sentiment data[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - More Markets plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.