Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.7M
- 24h volume
- $1.5M
- Liquidity
- $1.4M
- Open interest
- $989K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This event is for the upcoming Ligue 1 game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between Racing Club de Lens and Paris Saint-Germain FC.
Wikipedia Context
-
RC LensRacing Club de Lens, commonly referred to as RC Lens or simply as Lens, is a French professional football club based in the northern city of Lens in the department of Pas-de-Calais. The club's nickname, Les Sang et Or, comes from its traditional colours of red and gold. As of the 2024–25 season, Lens competes in Ligue 1, the highest tier of French football.
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RC Lens FémininRacing Club de Lens Féminin is a French football club that competes in the Seconde Ligue. The club was founded in 2001 as Arras Football Association, and was renamed Arras Football Club Féminin in 2011.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.ligue1.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Trade Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC on PolyGram
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