PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open golf tournament will take place in June at an unconfirmed venue, with the winner determined by PGA Tour official rules. The current 2% implied probability reflects the difficulty of predicting a single winner from a field that typically includes 156 players, many of whom remain unannounced until closer to the event. Markets on individual golfers winning major championships historically price in both the player's form and the inherent uncertainty of a single-elimination format where weather, course setup, and mental resilience determine outcomes across 72 holes.

Historical precedent suggests that favourites in major championship markets rarely exceed 15–20% implied probability, even for world number-one ranked players. The 2% figure here indicates the market is pricing this particular listed player as a substantial underdog relative to the field. Comparable markets on other 2026 majors show similar probability distributions, with the aggregate "Other" category typically capturing 60–75% of total probability across unlisted competitors.

Traders should monitor the player's tournament schedule through 2025 and early 2026, particularly performances at other majors and PGA Tour events that serve as form indicators. Course suitability matters substantially—the U.S. Open traditionally favours accuracy over distance, which affects player valuations. Any withdrawal or injury announcement would trigger immediate market resolution to "No" under the stated rules. Recent PGA Tour schedule announcements and world ranking movements through late 2025 will provide the most reliable signals for reassessing this probability before the June 2026 settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page tracks PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.