Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 74% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong | 68% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 2 Winner | 63% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 3 Winner | 63% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 1 Winner | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Match O/U 36.5 | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Game Spread +/-4.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Match O/U 38.5 | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Match O/U 40.5 | 41% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 30% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 21% |
| US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 10% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open atp: zizou bergs vs jesper de jong stands at 74% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Zizou Bergs and Jesper de Jong in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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