Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 50% |
| SC Internacional 2 - 0 Clube do Remo | 20% |
| SC Internacional 1 - 0 Clube do Remo | 15% |
| SC Internacional 2 - 1 Clube do Remo | 13% |
| SC Internacional 3 - 0 Clube do Remo | 13% |
| SC Internacional 1 - 1 Clube do Remo | 10% |
| SC Internacional 3 - 1 Clube do Remo | 8% |
| SC Internacional 2 - 2 Clube do Remo | 4% |
| SC Internacional 1 - 2 Clube do Remo | 3% |
| SC Internacional 0 - 2 Clube do Remo | 2% |
| SC Internacional 3 - 2 Clube do Remo | 2% |
| SC Internacional 1 - 3 Clube do Remo | 1% |
| SC Internacional 2 - 3 Clube do Remo | 1% |
| SC Internacional 0 - 0 Clube do Remo | 0% |
| SC Internacional 0 - 1 Clube do Remo | 0% |
| SC Internacional 0 - 3 Clube do Remo | 0% |
| SC Internacional 3 - 3 Clube do Remo | 0% |
Market context
SC Internacional will face Clube do Remo in a Brazil Série A fixture on 17 August 2026, with the match kicking off at 7:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Settlement closes at 23:00 UTC on the same date.
The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting exact scorelines in football. Exact-score markets typically show extreme probability distributions, with the most common outcomes (1–0, 2–1, 2–0) rarely exceeding 15–20% individually. Internacional, as a traditional top-flight club, would ordinarily be favoured against Remo in direct matchups, yet this structural advantage disperses across dozens of possible results rather than concentrating on any single scoreline. Historical data from similar Série A fixtures shows that "Any Other Score" outcomes resolve roughly 60–70% of the time, making explicit score predictions inherently challenging.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight preceding the match, particularly injury updates and squad rotation patterns. Internacional's recent form and Remo's defensive record will influence expected goal distributions. Weather conditions at the venue and any late fixture rescheduling announcements—which remain possible given Brazil's fixture congestion—could alter preparation and fatigue levels. Confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled by 16 August will be a key checkpoint. No recent catalyst announcements have shifted market sentiment materially; the 0% reading reflects baseline difficulty rather than specific negative information about any particular scoreline.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for SC Internacional vs. Clube do Remo - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
Trade SC Internacional vs. Clube do Remo - Exact Score on Election Predictions UK
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