Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 48.5 | 100% |
| O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| Florida International O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Florida International O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Florida International O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Florida International O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| Buffalo O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Buffalo 1H O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Buffalo 2H O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Buffalo 2H O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Florida International O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Florida International O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| Florida International O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| Florida International O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| O/U 51.5 | 98% |
| O/U 49.5 | 98% |
| Buffalo O/U 14.5 | 91% |
| Buffalo O/U 17.5 | 91% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 91% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| Spread -10.5 | 67% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| Spread -11.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Buffalo O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Florida International O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida International O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Buffalo O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Buffalo O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Buffalo 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Carrie: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Terrance Shelton Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Devonte Lyons: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| JJ Kohl: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle McNeal: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chance Morrow: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Elijah Holmes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sterling Joseph: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| JoJo Stone: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jasaiah Gathings: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Greg Gaines III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Maguire Anderson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Resar: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James McNeil Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Messiah Burch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Verdugo: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dwayne Early Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Patrick Clacks III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Clint Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trevor Wilson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Florida International O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 49% |
| Spread -23.5 | 49% |
| Spread -26.5 | 49% |
| Spread -30.5 | 49% |
| Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Spread -16.5 | 48% |
| O/U 59.5 | 48% |
| Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| Spread -17.5 | 47% |
| O/U 65.5 | 47% |
| Spread -27.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| Spread -21.5 | 29% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| Spread -24.5 | 12% |
| Buffalo vs. Florida International | 1% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Buffalo 1H O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Buffalo 1H O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Buffalo 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Buffalo 1H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Buffalo 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Buffalo 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to buffalo vs. florida international. In the upcoming college football game between Buffalo and Florida International, scheduled for September 12 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Buffalo" if Buffalo win the game. This market wil…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $95K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Buffalo vs. Florida International plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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