Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 85% |
| Memphis O/U 20.5 | 84% |
| O/U 39.5 | 83% |
| O/U 41.5 | 81% |
| O/U 43.5 | 77% |
| Memphis O/U 23.5 | 77% |
| Memphis vs. Tulane | 71% |
| O/U 45.5 | 71% |
| Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| Memphis O/U 32.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| O/U 47.5 | 68% |
| 1H Moneyline | 66% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 62% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| Spread -4.5 | 58% |
| O/U 51.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| Memphis O/U 29.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| Memphis O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Tulane O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Memphis O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Tulane O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Tulane O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Tulane O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tulane O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Tulane O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Tulane 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Tulane 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tulane 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Tulane 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Tulane 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tulane 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Memphis vs. Tulane: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Memphis vs. Tulane: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Memphis vs. Tulane: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulane 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulane 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tulane Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Memphis vs. Tulane: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis vs. Tulane: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis vs. Tulane: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| O/U 55.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| Spread -16.5 | 45% |
| Spread -20.5 | 45% |
| O/U 57.5 | 44% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 61.5 | 34% |
| Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| Spread -0.5 | 30% |
| O/U 63.5 | 29% |
| Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 65.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| O/U 67.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| O/U 71.5 | 19% |
| O/U 69.5 | 18% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 73.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 75.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
Market context
Memphis vs. Tulane. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 71% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-16T23:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $141K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Memphis vs. Tulane plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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