Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| O/U 37.5 | 74% |
| Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| O/U 39.5 | 68% |
| Florida International O/U 23.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| Spread -5.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 41.5 | 61% |
| O/U 43.5 | 59% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| O/U 45.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| Middle Tennessee O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Florida International O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Florida International O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Florida International O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Florida International O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Florida International O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida International 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida International Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Middle Tennessee O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| O/U 47.5 | 47% |
| Florida International 1H O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Spread -13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 49.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| Middle Tennessee O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| O/U 51.5 | 37% |
| Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 35% |
| Spread -17.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 32% |
| O/U 53.5 | 30% |
| Middle Tennessee O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International | 23% |
| Spread -0.5 | 22% |
| O/U 57.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| O/U 59.5 | 19% |
| O/U 61.5 | 17% |
| Middle Tennessee O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Middle Tennessee O/U 32.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 67.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 73.5 | 6% |
| O/U 75.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Market context
Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 23% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-20T23:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $111K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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