What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

Navy vs. Florida Atlantic | Election Predictions 2026

Name: Navy vs. Florida Atlantic
Start: 2026-08-31T22:01:59.000Z
End: 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	91%	9%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	91%	9%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1Q O/U 7.5	91%
1Q O/U 10.5	91%
1Q O/U 13.5	91%
O/U 40.5	89%
O/U 38.5	79%
O/U 46.5	79%
O/U 52.5	79%
1Q Moneyline	79%
O/U 42.5	78%
O/U 44.5	78%
O/U 48.5	78%
O/U 57.5	77%
O/U 50.5	77%
O/U 54.5	76%
O/U 58.5	73%
O/U 59.5	72%
O/U 56.5	72%
O/U 60.5	70%
O/U 64.5	68%
Navy vs. Florida Atlantic	66%
Spread -3.5	66%
O/U 62.5	66%
Spread -1.5	63%
O/U 66.5	63%
Spread -6.5	61%
Spread -4.5	58%
O/U 68.5	56%
O/U 70.5	54%
Spread -2.5	53%
Spread -5.5	52%
O/U 72.5	51%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -27.5	50%
Spread -31.5	50%
Spread -34.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Navy O/U 4.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 3.5	50%
1H Spread -0.5	50%
1H Spread -1.5	50%
1H Spread -2.5	50%
1H Spread -3.5	50%
1H Moneyline	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
2Q Spread -4.5	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 21.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 24.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 27.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 30.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 33.5	50%
Navy O/U 26.5	50%
Navy O/U 29.5	50%
Navy O/U 32.5	50%
Navy O/U 35.5	50%
Navy O/U 38.5	50%
Navy 1H O/U 14.5	50%
Navy 1H O/U 16.5	50%
Navy 1H O/U 18.5	50%
Florida Atlantic 1H O/U 11.5	50%
Florida Atlantic 1H O/U 13.5	50%
Florida Atlantic 1H O/U 15.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 20.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 23.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 26.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 29.5	50%
Florida Atlantic O/U 32.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
Navy 1H O/U 12.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 15.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 17.5	50%
Florida Atlantic 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Florida Atlantic 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Florida Atlantic 2H O/U 15.5	50%
Navy O/U 25.5	50%
Navy O/U 28.5	50%
Navy O/U 31.5	50%
Navy O/U 34.5	50%
Navy O/U 37.5	50%
Navy 1H O/U 13.5	50%
Navy 1H O/U 15.5	50%
Navy 1H O/U 17.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 16.5	50%
Braxton Woodson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Vic Listorti: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Michael Barrow: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Leonard Farrow: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Kaden Shields-Dutton: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Landon Walker: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Ethan Ervin: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Easton Messer: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Caden Veltkamp: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Kelby Valsin: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Dominique Henry: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Branden Hoch: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Luke Hutchison: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Antonio Johnson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Isaiah Bryant: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Charles Robinson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Joshua Guerin: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -12.5	50%
Spread -13.5	50%
Spread -16.5	50%
1H Spread -7.5	50%
1H O/U 23.5	50%
1H O/U 26.5	50%
1H O/U 29.5	50%
1H O/U 32.5	50%
1H O/U 35.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H O/U 22.5	50%
2H O/U 25.5	50%
2H O/U 28.5	50%
2H O/U 31.5	50%
2H O/U 34.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q O/U 16.5	50%
1Q O/U 19.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q O/U 10.5	50%
2Q O/U 13.5	50%
2Q O/U 16.5	50%
2Q O/U 19.5	50%
2Q O/U 22.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q O/U 7.5	50%
3Q O/U 10.5	50%
3Q O/U 13.5	50%
3Q O/U 16.5	50%
3Q O/U 19.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q O/U 10.5	50%
4Q O/U 13.5	50%
4Q O/U 16.5	50%
4Q O/U 19.5	50%
4Q O/U 22.5	50%
Navy O/U 3.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 18.5	50%
Spread -8.5	48%
Spread -24.5	48%
O/U 74.5	48%
Spread -9.5	47%
Spread -6.5	47%
Spread -7.5	46%
Spread -21.5	46%
Spread -11.5	46%
Spread -9.5	44%
1H Spread -4.5	43%
Spread -12.5	43%
Spread -13.5	42%
O/U 76.5	39%
Spread -10.5	37%
Spread -16.5	37%
O/U 78.5	37%
Spread -1.5	36%
Spread -17.5	35%
Spread -18.5	34%
Spread -14.5	32%
Spread -2.5	32%
Spread -20.5	31%
Spread -3.5	31%
Spread -4.5	27%
Spread -10.5	16%

Market context

The Navy vs. Florida Atlantic prediction market currently prices this outcome at 91% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Navy and Florida Atlantic, scheduled for September 12 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Navy" if Navy win the game. This market will resolve to "…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1Q O/U 7.5 at 91% for "Navy vs. Florida Atlantic".

1Q O/U 7.5 91% Other 9%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $127K.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Navy vs. Florida Atlantic plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?: Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Navy vs. Florida Atlantic on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Navy vs. Florida Atlantic

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade Navy vs. Florida Atlantic on Election Predictions UK

Related live markets

Fed Decision in September?

Next French Presidential Election

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by 2027?

Brazil Presidential Election

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Related Topics