Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| Spread -4.5 | 86% |
| Spread -5.5 | 83% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 82% |
| Spread -7.5 | 78% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 75% |
| O/U 29.5 | 74% |
| Spread -8.5 | 73% |
| O/U 31.5 | 72% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Spread -11.5 | 68% |
| O/U 35.5 | 67% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 66% |
| Spread -13.5 | 62% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -14.5 | 59% |
| Spread -15.5 | 56% |
| O/U 33.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 37.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -16.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Spread -19.5 | 45% |
| Spread -18.5 | 43% |
| O/U 43.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| Spread -20.5 | 38% |
| O/U 39.5 | 37% |
| Spread -21.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Spread -22.5 | 34% |
| O/U 41.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 53.5 | 32% |
| O/U 55.5 | 32% |
| O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| Spread -23.5 | 30% |
| O/U 61.5 | 30% |
| O/U 65.5 | 30% |
| O/U 67.5 | 30% |
| Northwestern O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Spread -24.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Spread -26.5 | 25% |
| Spread -25.5 | 24% |
| Indiana O/U 34.5 | 23% |
| O/U 45.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 20.5 | 21% |
| Spread -27.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| Northwestern O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| O/U 47.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -28.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 17% |
| Spread -29.5 | 16% |
| Spread -30.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Indiana O/U 37.5 | 14% |
| O/U 49.5 | 13% |
| Northwestern O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -32.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 11% |
| O/U 51.5 | 10% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana | 8% |
| Spread -35.5 | 7% |
| Spread -36.5 | 7% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -38.5 | 6% |
| Spread -39.5 | 6% |
| Spread -42.5 | 6% |
| O/U 57.5 | 5% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 5% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 3% |
| O/U 63.5 | 2% |
| O/U 69.5 | 2% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Northwestern vs. Indiana. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 9% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $813K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Northwestern vs. Indiana plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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