Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Oregon vs. Oklahoma State | 95% |
| Spread -1.5 | 94% |
| Spread -2.5 | 92% |
| Spread -3.5 | 90% |
| Spread -4.5 | 88% |
| 1H Moneyline | 88% |
| Spread -5.5 | 87% |
| Spread -6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 39.5 | 86% |
| Spread -7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 41.5 | 82% |
| Spread -8.5 | 80% |
| Spread -9.5 | 80% |
| O/U 43.5 | 79% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 79% |
| Spread -10.5 | 77% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 8.5 | 76% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 9.5 | 75% |
| Spread -13.5 | 73% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| Oregon O/U 32.5 | 71% |
| Oregon O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| Spread -14.5 | 69% |
| O/U 47.5 | 69% |
| Spread -15.5 | 67% |
| Spread -16.5 | 66% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 11.5 | 66% |
| Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| Oregon O/U 34.5 | 65% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 12.5 | 65% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -17.5 | 64% |
| O/U 49.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 63% |
| Spread: Oregon (-18.5) | 62% |
| Oregon O/U 35.5 | 60% |
| Spread -19.5 | 59% |
| Oregon O/U 36.5 | 59% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Spread -20.5 | 58% |
| O/U 51.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 57% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 55% |
| Oregon O/U 37.5 | 55% |
| Spread -21.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 54% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 18.5 | 54% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| Spread -22.5 | 53% |
| O/U 53.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| Spread -23.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 52% |
| Dante Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Evan Stewart: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Wyatt Young: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Da'Jaun Riggs: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Oregon O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Jordon Davison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dierre Hill Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamari Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jeremiah McClellan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dakorien Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Hawkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Justin Bowick: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Barnes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Miles Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Drew Mestemaker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Simeon Price: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tre Page III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Gatlin Bair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ayo Adeyi: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kendre Harrison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Kolb: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rodney Harris II: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Terrence Lewis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 38.5 | 49% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Oregon O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Oregon O/U 40.5 | 48% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Spread -24.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| Spread -25.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 43% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Oregon O/U 41.5 | 43% |
| Spread -26.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 42% |
| O/U 58.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Oregon O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Spread -27.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 18.5 | 38% |
| O/U 60.5 | 37% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Oregon O/U 42.5 | 37% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Spread -28.5 | 36% |
| Oregon O/U 43.5 | 35% |
| Spread -29.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| O/U 61.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Oregon O/U 44.5 | 32% |
| Spread -30.5 | 32% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Oregon O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -31.5 | 30% |
| O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| Oregon O/U 45.5 | 28% |
| Spread -32.5 | 28% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 21.5 | 27% |
| Oregon O/U 46.5 | 26% |
| O/U 65.5 | 25% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 22.5 | 25% |
| Spread -34.5 | 24% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| O/U 67.5 | 23% |
| Oregon O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Spread -37.5 | 19% |
| O/U 69.5 | 18% |
| O/U 71.5 | 15% |
| Spread -38.5 | 15% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| O/U 73.5 | 14% |
| Spread -40.5 | 14% |
| Spread -41.5 | 12% |
| O/U 75.5 | 10% |
| Spread -44.5 | 9% |
| O/U 77.5 | 8% |
| O/U 79.5 | 6% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, oregon vs. oklahoma state stands at 95% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Oregon and Oklahoma State, scheduled for September 12 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Oregon" if Oregon win the game. This…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $78K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Oregon vs. Oklahoma State plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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