Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 97% |
| O/U 37.5 | 94% |
| O/U 39.5 | 94% |
| O/U 41.5 | 92% |
| Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan | 89% |
| Spread -1.5 | 89% |
| Spread -2.5 | 87% |
| Toledo O/U 23.5 | 87% |
| O/U 47.5 | 85% |
| Toledo O/U 20.5 | 85% |
| Toledo O/U 29.5 | 85% |
| O/U 49.5 | 84% |
| Spread -3.5 | 83% |
| O/U 43.5 | 83% |
| Spread -4.5 | 82% |
| Spread -5.5 | 80% |
| Spread -6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 51.5 | 75% |
| O/U 53.5 | 72% |
| Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| Spread -8.5 | 70% |
| Spread -10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 55.5 | 63% |
| O/U 57.5 | 62% |
| Spread -13.5 | 57% |
| Spread -16.5 | 53% |
| Spread -14.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 15.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 53% |
| O/U 59.5 | 52% |
| O/U 61.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Eastern Michigan O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 49% |
| Eastern Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 49% |
| Eastern Michigan O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| Spread -17.5 | 44% |
| Spread -20.5 | 41% |
| O/U 63.5 | 38% |
| O/U 65.5 | 34% |
| O/U 69.5 | 32% |
| O/U 67.5 | 30% |
| O/U 73.5 | 30% |
| O/U 75.5 | 28% |
| O/U 71.5 | 21% |
| Spread -1.5 | 17% |
| Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -5.5 | 6% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
Market context
Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 92% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-17T19:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $615K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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