Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 84% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| O/U 39.5 | 77% |
| O/U 41.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 62% |
| Purdue O/U 23.5 | 62% |
| O/U 45.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 61% |
| Spread -0.5 | 60% |
| Washington O/U 20.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 47.5 | 56% |
| Washington 1H O/U 11.5 | 56% |
| Washington 1H O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| Purdue 1H O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Washington vs. Purdue: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Purdue O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Washington O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Purdue O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Purdue O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Purdue O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Washington vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Washington vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Washington vs. Purdue: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Washington 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Purdue 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Purdue Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington vs. Purdue: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington vs. Purdue: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Purdue 2H O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 48% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Moneyline | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Washington vs. Purdue | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -0.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 40% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Purdue O/U 26.5 | 37% |
| Purdue 1H O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| O/U 55.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| O/U 57.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| Washington 1H O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 59.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Spread -13.5 | 24% |
| O/U 61.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| O/U 63.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| O/U 65.5 | 16% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| O/U 67.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| O/U 71.5 | 9% |
| O/U 73.5 | 9% |
| O/U 75.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
Market context
Washington vs. Purdue. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 41% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-17T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $180K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Washington vs. Purdue plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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