Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Zhejiang Zhiye FC and Dalian Yingbo FC are due to meet in the Chinese Super League at Huanglong Stadium, with the market’s **0% YES** implying that no additional “more markets” outcome is expected to resolve in the affirmative before the settlement window closes. The live fixture listing places the match on Sunday 26 July at Huanglong Stadium, although the displayed kick-off time appears inconsistent, so traders should treat the fixture itself as the anchor point rather than the clock detail.[1]
The current pricing is best read as a low-conviction, event-specific market rather than a broad read on team strength. In comparable football “more markets” listings, late movement usually comes from confirmed team news, competition scheduling changes, or official match-day information rather than longer-run form, so a flat zero can persist until a concrete catalyst emerges. Here, the key catalyst to watch is whether the match proceeds as scheduled and whether any official pre-match update changes the available market set before kick-off.[1]
For traders, the main dependency is simple: the market appears to be leaning on the scheduled league fixture rather than any separate off-pitch announcement. Absent a late federation notice, venue change, or a fresh official match bulletin, there is little in the current public listing to suggest a new trigger that would force additional market resolution.[1]
Sources: 1
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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