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1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

"1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 98% 1. FC Cologne 0 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 2% 1. FC Cologne 0 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1% 1. FC Cologne 2 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1% Volume: $2.1M Liquidity: $486K Closes: 7 Aug 2026
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1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
98% 2% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
98% 2% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian98%
1. FC Cologne 0 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian2%
1. FC Cologne 0 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian1%
1. FC Cologne 2 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian1%
1. FC Cologne 0 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 0 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 1 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 1 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 1 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 2 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 3 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 1 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 2 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 3 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 3 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 3 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
Any Other Score0%

Market context

The friendly between 1. FC Köln and Real Sociedad San Sebastián is a clean slate market, but the historical meeting points do not point to a one-sided scoreline. The sides have met only twice in the available head-to-head record: Real Sociedad won 1-0 in 1988, and the other tie ended 2-2, with the overall goal count standing at 3-2 to the Spanish side.[1][4] That profile is consistent with why a specific exact score can sit at a very low implied price: even in matchups with moderate scoring, the distribution of possible finals is fragmented across many outcomes rather than concentrating in one result.

The main catalyst to watch is the team-news and line-up release closer to kick-off, because pre-season friendlies often turn on rotation, squad depth and minutes management more than underlying club strength. Sofascore listed the fixture for 7 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC as a Club Friendly, which means the market’s key dependency is whether both clubs treat it as a first-choice dress rehearsal or a wider squad run-out.[2] Recent form data from ESPN also suggests both sides have been involved in mixed, relatively open matches ahead of this fixture, with Köln and Real Sociedad each posting a run of draws and multi-goal results in their most recent league games before the summer break.[10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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