The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Birmingham Phoenix

Platform comparison

Market context

Manchester Super Giants’ clash with Birmingham Phoenix in The Hundred has already been decided on the field, with Manchester winning by 87 runs at Old Trafford after posting 187/5 and bowling Phoenix out for 100. That means the market’s 100% YES pricing is now consistent with the published match result rather than merely a pre-match view of likely outcome.[1][2]

For context, a 100% implied probability is rarely about forecasting uncertainty and more about the market being fully anchored to an outcome that has effectively been confirmed. Pre-match previews had described the contest as close, with one recent model framing it as roughly a coin-flip and only a marginal lean either way, which underlines how quickly a lopsided result can override earlier expectations.[3] In comparable Hundred fixtures, decisive totals or dominant bowling spells have tended to flip prices sharply once the result becomes clear, especially when one side is outplayed across both innings.[1]

The key catalyst traders were leaning on was the live score and final scoreline rather than any scheduled team news or external development. Cricbuzz and BBC Sport both reported the completed result, with Jos Buttler’s 90 central to Manchester’s total and the Phoenix reply folding well short of the target.[1][2] For settlement purposes, the relevant dependency is the final result as published by ESPNcricinfo, so unless that record were to differ materially, the market should stay locked to YES on the basis of Manchester’s win.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Birmingham Phoenix across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.