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Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs

"Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5) 100% O/U 2.5 Games 87% Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 50% Volume: $227K Liquidity: $116K Closes: 26 Sept 2026
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Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)100%
O/U 2.5 Games87%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-9.5) vs 100 Thieves (+9.5)50%
Match Winner48%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.547%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)40%
Map 2 Winner14%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.514%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs Astralis (+6.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, counter-strike: 100 thieves vs astralis (bo3) - stake pulse beat ii playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between 100 Thieves and Astralis in the Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 6:00 …

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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