Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs Benched gods (+3.5) | 100% |
| Match Winner | 85% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs Benched gods (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs Benched gods (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Benched gods (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BG (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to counter-strike: sparta vs benched gods (bo3) - cct europe series #5 group stage. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between SPARTA and Benched gods in the CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 26 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Trade Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT E… on Election Predictions UK
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