Cabo Verde vs. Serbia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A FIFA International Friendly match between Cabo Verde and Serbia is scheduled for 31 May 2026. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability for the match occurring as scheduled, suggesting traders assess minimal risk of cancellation or postponement.

Friendly fixtures between lower-ranked nations carry historical precedent for fixture stability. Cabo Verde (FIFA ranking typically in the 160s–170s range) and Serbia (usually ranked 50–70) have both maintained consistent participation in friendly calendars despite limited commercial incentive. Neither nation faces the geopolitical friction or fixture congestion that occasionally forces cancellations among higher-ranked sides. The 2026 window falls outside major tournament qualification phases for both teams, reducing scheduling pressure that might otherwise trigger withdrawal.

The settlement window closes on 31 May at 13:30 UTC, allowing approximately 48 hours post-match for official confirmation. Traders should monitor FIFA's official fixture calendar and both national federations' announcements through May, particularly any squad availability issues or last-minute venue changes. Recent friendly schedules published by the Serbian Football Association and Cabo Verde's football governing body have shown consistent follow-through on announced dates. The absence of reported fixture disputes or diplomatic tensions between the two nations, as documented in standard sports news outlets covering international football, supports the current probability assessment. Any injury crisis affecting either squad's preparation could theoretically trigger rescheduling, though such occurrences remain rare for friendlies scheduled this far in advance.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Cabo Verde vs. Serbia plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.