Iraq vs. Venezuela

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iraq and Venezuela are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Tuesday, 9 June 2026. The match forms part of the pre-tournament preparation window ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with both nations using such fixtures to assess squad depth and tactical formations before competitive play begins. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's assessment of Iraq's likelihood of victory in this fixture.

Historical matchups between these sides offer limited precedent for direct comparison. Iraq and Venezuela have met only once in official competition, a 2–1 Venezuela victory during 1990 World Cup qualifying. Iraq's performance in recent friendlies has been inconsistent, whilst Venezuela has struggled to generate consistent results against competitive opponents. The market's extreme confidence in a non-Iraq outcome suggests traders are weighting Venezuela's recent form and ranking differential heavily, though friendly matches carry inherent unpredictability given squad rotation and experimental lineups typical of June international windows.

Catalysts affecting settlement include confirmation of final squad selections from both federations, expected in late May 2026, and any late withdrawals due to injury or club commitments. Venue designation—whether the match is held in a neutral location or one nation's home ground—remains a material factor, as does the specific timing relative to club season conclusions across European leagues. FIFA's official fixture list and both national football associations' announcements will provide definitive confirmation of team composition and conditions closer to the settlement window closure on 10 June 2026.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Iraq vs. Venezuela plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.