Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 12 June at 3:00 PM ET. The market resolves YES only if the match ends with an exact scoreline matching one of the predetermined outcomes; any other result triggers "Any Other Score." The 10% probability assigned to this specific outcome reflects the mathematical improbability of predicting football's precise final score, where dozens of potential results exist across the full range of plausible goals.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in football typically see winning probabilities between 8% and 15% for individual outcomes in competitive matches. Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina represent a competitive pairing—Bosnia-Herzegovina ranked 61st in FIFA standings as of late 2024, whilst Canada sits around 48th. Neither team is heavily favoured to dominate, which widens the distribution of probable scorelines rather than concentrating probability around a single result. Matches between similarly-ranked sides produce more varied outcomes than encounters between vastly different-quality opponents.

Traders should monitor team news and squad announcements through the spring of 2026, particularly injury updates affecting key players. Bosnia-Herzegovina's qualifying campaign and Canada's performance in friendlies leading into the tournament will signal attacking and defensive capabilities. The specific group composition and seeding will also affect tactical approaches—teams facing stronger opponents earlier may adopt more defensive setups, narrowing expected goal totals. Recent World Cup tournaments have seen group-stage matches between mid-ranked teams produce scores in the 1–2 goal range with regularity, making extreme scorelines (4+ goals) considerably less probable than moderate results.

Methodology

This page tracks Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.