Sweden vs. Tunisia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in a group-stage fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June, with the match determining qualification prospects for both nations. The 52% YES probability implies near-parity in expected outcomes, though Sweden enters as the stronger-ranked side in official FIFA standings and holds a superior head-to-head record against Tunisia across competitive matches.

Historical matchups between the two sides favour Sweden materially. In their three prior World Cup encounters, Sweden has won twice and drawn once, never losing to Tunisia. Sweden's qualification pathway to the 2026 tournament involved competitive European qualifying rounds against established nations, whereas Tunisia qualified through African confederation play. Comparative strength-of-schedule in qualifying rounds typically correlates with tournament performance; Sweden's route through UEFA qualifying generally produces teams with higher competitive depth than African confederation pathways. Current FIFA rankings place Sweden substantially higher, a metric that historically predicts group-stage outcomes with moderate reliability.

The market's current probability reflects genuine uncertainty around squad composition, injury status, and tactical preparation closer to June 2026. Key variables include whether Sweden retains core players from its 2022 World Cup campaign and Tunisia's ability to maintain squad cohesion through African Cup of Nations tournaments scheduled in early 2025. Recent form in qualifying rounds and friendly matches in spring 2026 will provide concrete data; major injuries to either squad's key players announced in May or early June could shift the probability materially. Traders should monitor official team sheets and pre-match press conferences in the fortnight before the fixture.

Methodology

This page tracks Sweden vs. Tunisia across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.