🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogTrade this market →

LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

"LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In" across the four most-traded political prediction venues — live data, regulatory notes, every CTA to Election Predictions UK.

Match Winner 77% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Game 1 Winner 68% Volume: $227K Liquidity: $549K Closes: 30 Jun 2026
Open live market →
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner77%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Game 1 Winner68%
Game 2 Winner68%
O/U 3.5 Games68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Game 3 Winner67%
Game 4 Winner62%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)60%
First Blood in Game 4?53%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?39%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)31%
O/U 4.5 Games30%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?30%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors26%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: karmine corp vs team liquid (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in stands at 77% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. …

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season … on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Election Predictions UK.

See all markets →