Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Houston Astros on 16 June at 8:10PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The market currently implies a 39% probability of a Tigers victory, suggesting the Astros are favoured at roughly 61%. Settlement occurs on 24 June, allowing for postponements or rescheduling within that window.

Historical matchup data between these franchises provides context for the current pricing. The Astros have maintained a stronger win-loss record in recent seasons and possess a more consistent roster composition, which typically correlates with higher implied probabilities in head-to-head fixtures. The Tigers, whilst competitive, have experienced roster transitions that affect their baseline performance metrics. Comparable games between teams with similar relative strength differentials have historically resolved in line with pre-game probability distributions, though individual game variance remains substantial.

Key catalysts for traders include roster availability updates, particularly injury reports released in the 48 hours preceding the fixture. Starting pitcher assignments carry material weight in MLB prediction markets; confirmation of pitching matchups typically occurs 24–48 hours before game time. Weather conditions at the venue may also shift probabilities, particularly wind direction and temperature affecting ball carry distance. Recent form data from both teams' preceding games will influence late-market movement, though the current 39% probability already reflects publicly available season statistics and recent performance trends as of the market's opening.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.