New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Cleveland Guardians in an MLB regular-season match on 10 June at 1:10pm ET, with settlement occurring by 17 June. The 98% crowd-implied probability strongly favours a Yankees victory, reflecting their standing as one of baseball's most resourced franchises with consistent playoff qualification records.

Historical context suggests such probabilities in regular-season MLB games typically correlate with roster strength and recent form rather than single-game variance. The Yankees have maintained winning records in most seasons over the past decade, whilst Cleveland has experienced more volatility. However, regular-season baseball exhibits higher upset potential than markets often price in—approximately 35–40% of games between teams ranked in the top half of their league go to the lower-ranked side, according to historical MLB data. The 98% probability implies near-certainty, which sits at the extreme end of typical single-game pricing even for matchups between strong and weaker teams.

Key variables affecting settlement include roster availability and weather conditions on match day. Recent injury reports from both teams' official announcements should be monitored through early June, particularly regarding starting pitchers and key position players. The market remains open until completion if postponement occurs, meaning rain delays or rescheduling would extend the settlement window. Traders should track Cleveland's recent performance trajectory and any late roster moves, as these could shift the underlying competitive balance closer to game time.

Methodology

This page tracks New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.