Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 96% |
| O/U 215.5 | 95% |
| O/U 217.5 | 94% |
| O/U 219.5 | 93% |
| O/U 221.5 | 91% |
| O/U 223.5 | 88% |
| O/U 225.5 | 85% |
| Bulls O/U 110.5 | 84% |
| O/U 227.5 | 83% |
| Wizards O/U 110.5 | 82% |
| O/U 229.5 | 80% |
| Bulls O/U 112.5 | 80% |
| O/U 230.5 | 78% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Wizards O/U 112.5 | 78% |
| O/U 231.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 74% |
| Bulls O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| Wizards O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| O/U 233.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 72% |
| O/U 235.5 | 69% |
| Bulls O/U 116.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 68% |
| Wizards O/U 116.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 67% |
| O/U 236.5 | 66% |
| O/U 237.5 | 65% |
| Bulls O/U 118.5 | 63% |
| O/U 238.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 62% |
| Wizards O/U 118.5 | 62% |
| O/U 239.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 60% |
| O/U 241.5 | 56% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 56% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Wizards O/U 120.5 | 55% |
| O/U 242.5 | 54% |
| O/U 243.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Bulls O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Bulls O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Wizards O/U 134.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 244.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 29.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| Wizards O/U 122.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| O/U 246.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 44% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 34.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 34.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Wizards O/U 124.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 34.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 249.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 39.5 | 38% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 17.5 | 38% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Bulls O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 22.5 | 36% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| O/U 252.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 12.5 | 33% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Bulls O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 64.5 | 33% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 23.5 | 28% |
| Bulls O/U 130.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 255.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Wizards O/U 130.5 | 26% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 22% |
| Bulls O/U 132.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 21% |
| Wizards O/U 132.5 | 21% |
| Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 18% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 18% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 17% |
| Bulls O/U 134.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 139.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 141.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
Market context
Wizards vs. Bulls. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 48% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $227K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Wizards vs. Bulls plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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