Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 2H O/U 15.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| Patriots O/U 14.5 | 74% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 73% |
| Seahawks O/U 18.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 69% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 67% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 40.5 | 63% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| Patriots O/U 17.5 | 61% |
| O/U 41.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Seahawks O/U 21.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 57% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| O/U 43.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 11.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| O/U 46.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks O/U 24.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| O/U 47.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2H Moneyline | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks | 38% |
| O/U 48.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 11.5 | 36% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime Touchdown | 36% |
| A.J. Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime Touchdown | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 35% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 34% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| O/U 54.5 | 33% |
| O/U 50.5 | 32% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 29% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-13 | 27% |
| O/U 52.5 | 26% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 14-20 | 24% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 21+ | 24% |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks: Total Defensive/Special Teams TDs O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 23% |
| Jadarian Price: Anytime Touchdown | 23% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 21% |
| George Holani: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| O/U 58.5 | 19% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 19% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 19% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 16% |
| Cooper Kupp: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 16% |
| AJ Barner: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| Rashid Shaheed: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Hunter Henry: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| O/U 64.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2+ TD | 9% |
| Jadarian Price 2+ TD | 8% |
| TreVeyon Henderson: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson 2+ TD | 6% |
| A.J. Brown 2+ TD | 6% |
| Cooper Kupp 2+ TD | 5% |
| George Holani 2+ TD | 5% |
| Rashid Shaheed 2+ TD | 3% |
| AJ Barner 2+ TD | 3% |
| Romeo Doubs 2+ TD | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| TreVeyon Henderson 2+ TD | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 93% chance of patriots vs. seahawks. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 9 at 8:20PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Seahawks wins, the market will resolve to "Seahawks". …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $131K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Patriots vs. Seahawks plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Patriots vs. Seahawks on Election Predictions UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →