Kalmar FF vs. Malmo FF

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the Allsvenskan football match between Kalmar FF and Malmö FF, which concluded on Monday, 20 July 2026 with a 2–2 draw. The market’s 0% YES probability reflects that the game has already finished, rendering any forward-looking outcome impossible and confirming the event as settled rather than pending.

Historically, prediction markets for completed sports fixtures that retain active trading post-settlement typically collapse to zero once final scores are confirmed, as seen in similar Allsvenskan matches where late liquidity evaporated after ESPN published the official result[1][2]. Comparable cases in European football markets show that once a match ends, any binary outcome tied to future performance becomes void, aligning with the current 0% pricing.

Traders should note that no further catalysts exist, as the settlement window closed immediately following the final whistle and no scheduled debates, declarations, or campaign-finance disclosures apply to this sporting event. The market leans entirely on the confirmed match result, with ESPN’s final score report serving as the definitive settlement source[1]. With the fixture expired and tickets no longer available, the market has no active dependencies[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Kalmar FF vs. Malmo FF across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.