How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3… | Election Predictions 2026

Name: Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A
Start: 2026-09-27T13:39:26.000Z
End: 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	98%	2%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	98%	2%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Map 1 Winner	98%
Match Winner	90%
Map 2 Winner	74%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)	73%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5	50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)	50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5	50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5	50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5	50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)	50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5	50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5	50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5	50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5	50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5	50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)	50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)	50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)	50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)	50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs FUT Esports (+4.5)	50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs FUT Esports (+5.5)	50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-7.5) vs FUT Esports (+7.5)	50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5	50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs FUT Esports (+6.5)	50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5	50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)	32%
O/U 2.5 Games	27%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-8.5) vs FUT Esports (+8.5)	0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 98% YES probability for Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between 100 Thieves and FUT Esports in the VCT Champions Group A, initially scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve t…

Methodology

This page tracks Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?: Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Cha… on Election Predictions UK

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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Cha… on Election Predictions UK

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