LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

JD Gaming face Anyone's Legend in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the LPL Group Ascend competition on 10 May 2026. The fixture is scheduled for 7:00 AM ET, with settlement occurring at 17:20 UTC the same day. The 48% implied probability for JD Gaming suggests near-parity in market expectations, though the specific composition of rosters and recent form data remain critical to understanding this valuation.

Historical precedent in LPL Group Ascend matchups shows that seeding position and recent scrim performance typically correlate with match outcomes more reliably than raw team reputation. Teams competing in secondary group stages often exhibit high variance in results due to roster experimentation and reduced preparation time compared to primary league phases. JD Gaming's historical win rates in similar group-stage formats have ranged between 45–55% depending on opponent calibre, suggesting the current 48% probability reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than market mispricing.

Traders should monitor roster announcements and any last-minute substitutions prior to the 7:00 AM ET start time, as the LPL occasionally adjusts lineups for group-stage matches. Patch notes released in the week preceding 10 May will influence champion viability and team preparation strategies. Any official postponement notices from the LPL would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if delays exceed seven days. Recent LPL scheduling updates should be tracked via the official LPL website and team social media channels for confirmation of fixture timing and participant status.

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.