Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Karmine Corp and G2 Esports will contest a best-of-three League of Legends match in the LEC Regular Season on 8 May 2026. The 51% crowd probability slightly favours Karmine Corp, reflecting near-parity between the two organisations in current market assessment. This represents a competitive matchup rather than a heavily favoured outcome, suggesting traders perceive meaningful uncertainty about the result.
G2 Esports has historically dominated European League of Legends, winning multiple LEC championships and consistently ranking amongst the region's strongest teams. Karmine Corp, founded in 2022, has rapidly ascended the competitive hierarchy and now competes at the highest level. The current probability distribution reflects G2's established pedigree against Karmine's recent momentum, with the slight edge to Karmine suggesting the market weights recent performance and roster composition heavily. Historical head-to-head records between these teams and their respective win rates in the current season would provide baseline context for calibrating the 51% figure.
Traders should monitor roster announcements, player availability, and patch changes affecting champion viability in the weeks preceding the match. Recent LEC standings and both teams' performance trajectories in the weeks immediately before 8 May will likely shift the probability. Any coaching changes, mid-season transfers, or public statements from team management regarding preparation could influence market sentiment. The settlement window closes at 20:10 UTC on match day, allowing for live trading adjustments as the match progresses and outcomes become apparent.
Methodology
This page tracks LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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