LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Karmine Corp and GIANTX are scheduled to contest a League of Legends best-of-three match in the LEC Regular Season on 10 May 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme uncertainty about match occurrence or a technical issue with market pricing, as both teams are established LEC franchises with no recent history of systematic non-participation in scheduled fixtures.

Historical precedent suggests LEC matches proceed as scheduled in the vast majority of cases. Since the league's 2019 inception, cancellations or extended delays beyond the seven-day resolution window have been exceptionally rare, typically occurring only during exceptional circumstances such as infrastructure failures or organisational crises. The 50-50 resolution clause for unplayed matches provides protection against these outlier scenarios, but they represent a small fraction of scheduled contests. Comparable esports leagues have similarly high completion rates for regular-season fixtures once teams have confirmed roster availability.

Traders should monitor LEC official announcements regarding team roster status and any scheduling changes in the week preceding 10 May. Recent organisational changes at either franchise, player visa issues, or technical problems at the broadcast venue would constitute material catalysts. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, allowing approximately ten hours after the scheduled 14:00 UTC start time for the match to conclude. Any announcement from LEC management regarding fixture postponement would immediately alter market dynamics, though such declarations typically emerge only days before scheduled play.

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/lec. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.