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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

"LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" across the four most-traded political prediction venues — live data, regulatory notes, every CTA to Election Predictions UK.

Match Winner 90% Game 1 Winner 76% Game 2 Winner 76% Game 3 Winner 76% Volume: $88K Liquidity: $361K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner90%
Game 1 Winner76%
Game 2 Winner76%
Game 3 Winner76%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)75%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?71%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?71%
Game 4 Winner60%
O/U 3.5 Games55%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)45%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?37%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games20%

Market context

The LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 90% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between LYON and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve …

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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