MLB All-Star Game

Platform comparison

Market context

The American League faces a National League side favoured to win the 2026 MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, with the crowd currently assigning a 46% probability to an AL victory. This implied chance sits notably below the 59% probability for the National League seen on Kalshi as of 10 July, suggesting a divergence in trader sentiment between platforms [5]. Historically, the All-Star Game has been a volatile predictor, with the National League winning two of the last three contests and holding a slight edge in talent concentration due to recent superstar migrations [5]. The 118–66 roll of recent All-Star outcomes further underscores the NL’s dominance in this fixture, making the current 46% AL price a potential outlier against the broader trend [1].

Traders should monitor the starting pitcher announcements and the final roster confirmations, as Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly park and the hometown starter for the NL are key catalysts favouring the National League [4]. The betting board already reflects this with the NL at -142 moneyline and the run line set at -1.5 for the NL [2]. Any late declarations regarding player availability or lineup changes could shift the probability, particularly given the NL’s offensive depth and the home-field energy expected in Philadelphia [4]. The market is leaning on the concentration of elite talent in the NL roster and the recent shift of superstars into the National League as the primary drivers for the current pricing [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for MLB All-Star Game plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.