Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians face the Philadelphia Phillies on 24 May in a regular-season MLB matchup scheduled for 1:35pm ET. The 48% crowd-implied probability for a Guardians victory reflects modest confidence in Cleveland, positioning the Phillies as slight favourites in the betting consensus.

Historical matchup data between these franchises shows competitive balance over recent seasons, though the Phillies have maintained a stronger overall win percentage in inter-divisional play since 2022. The Guardians' 2023 World Series run demonstrated their capacity to perform in high-stakes situations, yet consistency across the full regular season remains their challenge. Current roster composition—particularly Cleveland's pitching depth versus Philadelphia's offensive firepower—typically determines outcomes in head-to-head contests. The 48% probability suggests traders view this as a near-toss-up, with marginal advantages distributed across both teams' recent form.

Key variables affecting settlement include starting pitcher assignments and injury status updates, which MLB teams typically confirm 24 hours before game time. Weather conditions at the scheduled venue may influence play style and scoring patterns. Recent performance trends matter: traders should monitor both teams' records in the week preceding 24 May, as momentum shifts often precede probability adjustments in sports markets. The settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing for postponements or rescheduling without market closure, though cancellation without a make-up game would trigger a 50-50 split resolution.

Methodology

This page tracks Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.